Untitled from James Hayes on Vimeo.
Happy New Year!!
2009 has been a year with its ups and downs for me, but I finally reached my goal today and made Supernova on pokerstars. Now I’ll be raking in the FPP points for 2010.
My goals for 2010 or to play at least 150k hands per month and hit 400k vipp points which should work out to about $30,000 under the pokerstars new vip program.
I’d love to hear from my readers about what your goals are for the upcoming year so please feel free to post a comment!
AKo on the button. Not sure whether or not to valuebet the river.
No reads on the limper except that he’s played 4 hands and limped 3 of them. Not sure what to make of his donk bet on the drawy flop. Which is why I decide to call. I’ve got 30 hands on the BB and he’s been pretty loose passive limping and calling a lot and hasn’t won a hand at showdown yet. I think maybe I should have put out a value bet on the river or not. Any bet will commit me and it seems entirely possible villain has a busted draw or 2pair+ here. He could probably call off his stack with KJ or KQ here. Not too many other Kx hands in his range that haven’t made 2pair at this point though.
I’ve really been trying to get more value out of marginal river spots and I’m not sure if this is a standard shove or check back.
PokerTableRatings
If you don’t already know what this is about, feel free to check it out here http://www.pokertableratings.com
Pokertableratings tracks every cash hand from every table on just about all the major sites from the .50/1.00 level and up on most sites as well as all the micro levels on Full Tilt and Poker Stars. All you have to do is go to their site and do a player search and you’ll get all kinds of data on that player including the limits that they play and how much money they are up or down. You can check who the biggest winners or losers are for not just all of online poker, but you can apply filters for site, blind level, and structure as well. Up until recently PTR only tracked Hold’em cash games but have now started tracking PLO as well.
It’s definitely cool and entertaining to look up some of the big names like Phil Ivey, Patrick Antonius or Durrr and follow how they’ve been doing, but the best part is looking up players that you encounter on a regular basis. PTR has a buddy list tool which I have made very good use of. Any player that I deem a big enough fish that is worth getting online to go after gets added to my list. PTR sends me an email whenever that player sits down at a table. That email then gets forwarded to my Blackberry! Another thing that I recently used PTR for was scoping out the next limit up before moving there. I found out who the big fish were, who the good regulars and grinders were and who all the annoying shortstacks were. From there, I went into PokerStars notes and color coded all these players – Red for regular, Green for fish, and Yellow for shortstacks. Now I can see them all in the lobby before I even open up a table. Ideally I like to see lots of green and not too much red or yellow.
There has been a fair bit of controversy over the whole thing. First of all, PTR is datamining which is against the terms and conditions of the sites. They are selling the hand histories for people to load into their own Pokertracker databases. The online poker rooms aren’t happy with this but it seems that there is little they can do about it. Some of they players don’t like their privacy being invaded, as they believe their opponents are looking them up on PTR, and realizing that they are big winners and killing their action.
Overall, I don’t think its all that bad. Many players hated the idea of a HUD but now it has become the norm.
Dropping Down
I posted a graph of my recent good run at NL50 earlier this month. I was fortunate to move up and run well, because we all know how it can often seem impossible to hit a hand at the right time when you just move up to that next level. My last session at NL50 did not go well at all however. I lost $192, and while that isn’t really a lot – just a little under 4 buyins – in terms of variance for this level, I must admit it didn’t feel good. I guess I was hoping for my luck to continue right through to the end of the year. I gave it my all, but nothing I did seemed to work in that session and before I knew it, I was tilting and it was time to stop.
I’m glad I stopped when I did because who knows, maybe I would have tilted off a few more buy-ins if things didn’t turn around for me me soon. Luckily for me I’ve learned this lesson before. During a real bad 20k hand breakeven stretch back in the summer at 25NL, I decided a confidence booster was in order so I dropped down to NL10 for about 10 hours of play and crushed it for 2 buyins per hour, adding $200 to my bankroll and feeling much better about poker in general. So I did the same thing this time around dropping back down to 25NL to regain some confidence. Here’s my results:
Now I still ran pretty badly, and probably made more than a couple of stupid plays during my first couple of sessions in this last 25NL graph. But even when things were going horribly wrong, the swings didn’t effect me nearly as much as they did at NL50. For one, the stacks are only half the size and I was getting used to playing bigger pots so losing a stack here and there wasn’t as big a deal for me which really helped me in holding it together mentally. Finally things turned around for me and I went on a bit of a heater making $432 in a pretty short amount of time.
A lot of people make the mistake of not dropping down when they probably should. The first reason to drop down should be to follow whatever bankroll management strategy you’ve set out for yourself. Making a plan and sticking to it is a good thing. Many players are very well rolled for the level they are playing however, and can afford to lose several buyins. Thats all fine and good but what often happens is they end up playing badly due to their emotional state during the downswing. It can really take its toll on your overall winrate. Whenever I drop down, that level seems much easier to me than the last time I played it. It reminds me that I have gotten better and that my hardwork and study of this game is paying off. It has a rejuvenating effect on the way I feel about poker in general and that’s gotta be a good thing.
So the next time you hit a downswing or breakeven stretch that gets you down emotionally, try dropping down. It’ll probably lift your spirits, restore some confidence and rebuild your bankroll all at once.
I now feel ready to go back to the NL50 grind with a bigger bankroll than I started with on my last session. Tomorrow is Friday, and I like to have fish on Fridays!
50NL: Running good so far!
Decided to move up to NL50 this week. I’m pleased to say that things are going well so far, which is really good because I still need 12k vpp points to hit supernova. Earning them at double the rate makes things much easier, as I’m getting about 800 points in a 3 hour session while 24 tabling.
Here’s a graph of my progress so far:

$80/hour is pretty sexy, but I don’t think I can maintain this winrate. I do beleive that 4ptbb/100 hands would be sustainable which would be around $50/hour. Let’s hope I can keep this up and make supernova!
Best Value for FPP’s
For micro stakes players on Poker Stars getting the best value possible from your frequent player points is important, especially for low volume, low tier players since you won’t be getting any rakeback. At higher vip levels, the fpp system is actually quite superior to standard rakeback deals. For more information on the Poker Stars Vip program check out http://www.fpppro.com .
I have found a great way to convert your fpp points to cash at an excellent rate of return. The 210fpp satellites to the Sunday 1/4 Million run nonstop Monday-Saturday. They are a two table 20-man sit ‘n go that takes about an hour to play with 6 qualifying seats for the Sunday 1/4 Million. Now once you qualify you can remain registered and take a shot at the big tournament on Sunday, or you can unregister and get $11 in tournament money. If you prefer cash games to tournaments, you can sell your T$ by clicking Requests > Trade Tournament Money. There are a few sites that will buy your T$ at 97% of their face value such as http://liquidpoker.net . They have a simple form you fill out and then you initiate the trade.
Now this does take some time on your part unlike a cash reward or ordering items from the store so it may not be for you. I have found that I am able to play these satellites just fine while also playing 24 cash tables! I’ve played as many as 3 of the satellites at once. Since one begins registering right after one of them fills up, you can get in about 3-4 tournaments in about 1.5 hours which works out to around 2.5 satellites per hour. I’ve found that I can make the money in these around 2/3 of the time. So my rate of the turn maths would look like this:
2.5 * 11 * 2/3 = $18.42 per HOUR!
Show me a rakeback deal that can beat that!
Now unfortunately, most people don’t mass table the micros, or make enough FPP’s per hour to sustain playing 2.5 210fpp’s every hour (2.5 * 210 = 525FPP per hour minimal). But even if you can’t get that many, I’m sure with some solid play that this will still be the best conversion of your points to cash. Let’s compare this conversion, with purchasing the top bonus of $4,000 for supernovas.
| Cash Bonus | $4,000.00 | 250000 | $0.01600 | Supernova |
As you can see, the 4,000 supernova bonus costs 250,000 FPP’s for a points to cash conversion of $0.016 per point.
If you qualify for the 210fpp satellites 2/3 of the time or better like me, your conversion will look like this:
210fpp’s converted into $11 * 2/3 = $7.37
$7.37/210 = $0.035
As you can see, you’re getting more than double the rate of conversion with the 210 satellites that a supernova would purchasing the $4k bonus!
Strategy
Okay, so now you’re all psyched up about playing the 210 satellites, but how do you know what to do. Well, admittedly, I’m no expert at sit n’ gos or any tournament format for that matter, but I’m doing okay in them and I’ll pass on what I’ve learned to you. The first thing to keep in mind is that 1st place = 6th place. There’s no extra prize for being the big stack. Much like a double or nothing, you just want to make the money, no more, no less. I reccommend playing very tight in the beginning. You need to conserve chips for later on when you start getting down below 20bb so that you have something to shove with and steal blinds. I don’t recommend set mining in the early stages. Its too early to tell if the player will pay you off if you hit, and you won’t want to risk stealing many pots on the flop early on because it just isn’t worth it. Evertime you call a raise with a pocket pair, you’re bleeding chips that you need to survive. Just play squeaky tight and look for good spots to steal some blinds from tight players. Once the blinds start getting bigger, and the field has thinned out to the final table, you can start stealing a lot more. Most players will fold to a steal over 90% of the time at this stage depending on stack sizes and your image. I just push all-in with wide range when given the opportunity at this stage when my stack is getting low. When my stack is still healthy, I sit back and let other players do the pushing and eliminate each other.
I recommend reading up on some double or nothing strategy, as these satellites are very similar to them.
Gotta Love The Fish
Played this hand tonight. Fish was running at about 41/23 over a small sample of only 22 hands.
PokerStars, $0.25/0.50 Pot limit Texas Holdem Cash Games, 7 Players


ONESPADE31 checks, TheBowlBoy bets $3.15, (1 folds), ONESPADE31 calls $3.15,

ONESPADE31 bets $2, TheBowlBoy raises to $12.15, ONESPADE31 calls $10.15,

ONESPADE31 checks, TheBowlBoy bets $23.55, ONESPADE31 calls $23.30 and is all-in, TheBowlBoy returns $.25,


TheBowlBoy wins $78.95
Firing Two Barrells
Please read up on continuation betting in our Post Flop Strategy section if you haven’t already. Firing that second barrell usually means betting the turn after betting the flop, or making a continuation bet on the turn. This can get a little bit more complicated than cbetting the flop because things have changed. Before we go and bet the turn, we need a good reason and a good plan.
A lot of players have a pretty good understanding of when to cbet on the flop but often freeze up on the turn and shutdown too often, or they bet the turn too often for the wrong reasons resulting in bloated pots with weak hands. There are many variables to factor in and questions which need answering before firing a second barrell so I’ll go ahead and list some of them here:
- Our opponent’s range: Hopefully you’ve been narrowing your opponents’s range all the way up to this point. Your opponent started out with a range of hands that he will play preflop. Then he had a continuance range for calling your cbet on the flop. We now need to evaluate what hands in that range our opponent will fold, call and raise with based on the turn card.
- Change in board texture: Have any draws been completed? Is the turn card an overcard to the flop that we can represent to fold out smaller pairs? If we were betting for value on the flop, can we still bet for value on the turn? Sometimes it will be best to check back the turn if we have a decent hand such as an overpair on the flop like QQ and a King or Ace falls on the turn. It will be difficult to get additional value from smaller pairs now, but we may still be able to get some value out of draws.
- Plan for the river: This one is especially important. Always have a plan for the next street. Think about what rivers you will value bet on, which ones you check back for a cheaper showdown, which you will bluff and how you will react to a bet or raise on different possible river cards etc. Putting things into perspective and looking how the entire hand will play out now will prepare you for the next street, while making the decision on the current street easier.
- Position: Whether or not we have position on our opponent will make the hand much easier to play on the river. When we have position we can check back a lot with marginal holdings. This protects us from getting check raised on the river, and will often force our opponents to lead out on the river with their strong hands because they will fear we will check back for a cheap showdown. With marginal hands, we often cannot get 3 streets of value from worse hands anyway so having that option is a plus. When we are out of position, we should be firing the turn in situations where our opponent will either fold a high percentage of the time or we are prepared to bet the river often, either for value or as a bluff(remember to plan out ahead of time what sorts of river cards you will be value betting or bluffing on).
Many of the regulars or grinders you will face at the table will also be using tracking software such as Pokertracker 3 or Hold’em Manager, and will have the percentages for how often you cbet the flop and the turn displayed on their HUD. If you are cbetting the flop 90% of the time but only following up on the turn 30% of the time, you may be getting exploited by astute players. The answer isn’t necessarily to bet the turn more often, but betting the flop less often. If you start betting the flop 65% of the time while keeping your range for betting the turn the same, it will result in you betting the turn 41% of the time.
Maths: We bet the flop 90/100 times. 30% of 90 = 27, so we bet the turn 27/90 times.
If we bet the flop 65/100 times, but still bet the same range on the turn, we’ll be betting 27/65 times or 41% of the time.
In each example, we’re bettng the turn with the same range of hands but we’re betting the flop less often in the second example. In the first example there is a large gap between how often we bet the flop and the turn. Good players can pick up on this and exploit us by floating our flop bet since we’ll be shutting down on the turn the vast majority of the time. In the second example, the gap is much smaller and we’re therefore going to be less exploitable.
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5NL 6max 1 table video + commentary
Untitled from TheBowlBoy on Vimeo.